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Bayesian Win Probabilities from Past Speeds
Summary — Today’s Card
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| HELLO BEAUTY |
5 |
85.7 |
0.0 |
85.7 |
75 |
5 |
11.3 |
6.2 |
78.5 |
| OFF SCRIPT |
3 |
60.0 |
0.0 |
60.0 |
81 |
2 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
79.3 |
| SARATOGA SNOW |
8 |
16.7 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
70 |
2 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
70.1 |
| WILLFUL MAMA |
9 |
11.1 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
61 |
3 |
2.3 |
0.7 |
60.6 |
| OUR PREFERRED PAL |
12 |
11.1 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
50 |
2 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
67.5 |
| SASSETTI |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
78 |
3 |
7.2 |
4.0 |
72.6 |
| NIGHT JASMINE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
72 |
7 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
69.4 |
| KATIE KING |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
64 |
4 |
7.9 |
17.9 |
78.7 |
| JUST ONE MORE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
69 |
12 |
5.0 |
2.9 |
72.6 |
| WILL OF A WOMANNE |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
77 |
4 |
6.0 |
4.2 |
75.4 |
| AMAZING GRACER |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
71 |
5 |
10.5 |
6.8 |
73.2 |
| STARSHIP PEGASUS |
10 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
75 |
5 |
12.5 |
8.5 |
75.5 |
| A. P. SLINGSHOT |
11 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
17.6 |
19.7 |
78.5 |
| BODEGAS |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
60 |
7 |
3.8 |
15.5 |
77.3 |
| 2 |
| SPEED OF SOUND |
7 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
71 |
2 |
7.7 |
10.0 |
72.3 |
| LIKELY PERSPECTIVE (IRE) |
12 |
33.3 |
16.7 |
50.0 |
85 |
7 |
13.4 |
14.0 |
77.3 |
| AMAZING ATHENA (IRE) |
11 |
33.3 |
11.1 |
44.4 |
73 |
8 |
9.0 |
10.3 |
78.2 |
| LESLIE'S STAR |
2 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
40.0 |
84 |
4 |
10.4 |
6.4 |
57.5 |
| ELEGANT |
13 |
36.4 |
0.0 |
36.4 |
77 |
3 |
7.7 |
4.5 |
72.1 |
| WEST LOOP |
5 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
73 |
2 |
7.8 |
9.6 |
76.2 |
| I'M KIDDING |
15 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
75 |
2 |
5.4 |
6.3 |
68.2 |
| HUE |
1 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
76 |
3 |
7.2 |
7.0 |
71.7 |
| SHESINAMOOD |
6 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
72 |
6 |
5.2 |
6.4 |
69.4 |
| LOLLIPOPS |
14 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
71 |
2 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
61.5 |
| NO FACTOR |
4 |
0.0 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
47 |
10 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
47.4 |
| ANOTHER CLEESHAY |
9 |
0.0 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
69 |
3 |
5.8 |
8.5 |
64.2 |
| PARADE RING (IRE) |
8 |
0.0 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
75 |
1 |
9.1 |
9.3 |
72.4 |
| MISS BOURBON |
10 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
68 |
7 |
6.8 |
5.1 |
70.8 |
| PARTY AT THE POST |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
45 |
8 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
45.5 |
| 3 |
| CRESCENDO'S REIN |
7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
78 |
1 |
12.2 |
13.6 |
75.2 |
| UNCLE GEORGE |
1 |
45.5 |
45.5 |
90.9 |
95 |
1 |
24.8 |
22.1 |
86.5 |
| MAN IN FINANCE |
6 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
83 |
4 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
82.4 |
| LEO'S REWARD |
3 |
36.4 |
9.1 |
45.5 |
92 |
2 |
15.3 |
18.1 |
84.4 |
| CHIEF LIAM |
2 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
61 |
8 |
3.7 |
5.2 |
67.1 |
| ON THE HILL |
5 |
20.0 |
10.0 |
30.0 |
87 |
3 |
15.3 |
14.6 |
81.6 |
| ROOFER |
4 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
82 |
4 |
9.1 |
5.7 |
73.8 |
| 4 |
| SACAYA (FR) |
2 |
58.3 |
16.7 |
75.0 |
39 |
7 |
16.3 |
2.6 |
76.3 |
| NATIONAL ARCHIVE |
4 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
79 |
1 |
3.9 |
6.0 |
79.5 |
| SPEED SHOPPER |
10 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
40.0 |
88 |
1 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
87.4 |
| LOW KEY |
12 |
0.0 |
40.0 |
40.0 |
89 |
1 |
5.5 |
2.9 |
56.7 |
| ALIMARA (FR) |
1 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
80 |
7 |
11.5 |
5.9 |
86.1 |
| FLEETINGLY |
5 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
86 |
2 |
12.6 |
22.2 |
97.4 |
| WALK WITH ME |
13 |
0.0 |
27.3 |
27.3 |
80 |
1 |
2.9 |
6.3 |
83.5 |
| ATARAH |
3 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
68 |
7 |
5.3 |
11.4 |
79.8 |
| LINA (FR) |
9 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
25.0 |
75 |
8 |
12.3 |
4.9 |
84.9 |
| BETULA (GB) |
6 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
70 |
7 |
6.7 |
12.0 |
84.9 |
| PURLOIN |
11 |
0.0 |
22.2 |
22.2 |
87 |
1 |
8.3 |
4.8 |
83.0 |
| BOBBY JEAN |
8 |
0.0 |
18.2 |
18.2 |
82 |
5 |
3.4 |
1.9 |
81.1 |
| SNOWY EVENING |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
82 |
5 |
4.2 |
11.2 |
88.8 |
| 5 |
| FIVE DOZEN ROSES |
1 |
66.7 |
0.0 |
66.7 |
65 |
2 |
4.0 |
1.9 |
54.3 |
| GATTATIZ |
4 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
54 |
7 |
2.6 |
1.2 |
53.9 |
| MISS UPROAR |
10 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
55 |
3 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
57.8 |
| LADY DELILAH |
13 |
22.2 |
0.0 |
22.2 |
62 |
5 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
50.3 |
| PUREST PERFORMANCE |
5 |
20.0 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
49 |
3 |
1.6 |
8.3 |
64.8 |
| CLOUDY CHANCE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
55 |
8 |
4.3 |
5.8 |
65.8 |
| BLUESETTE |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
21.1 |
18.6 |
70.8 |
| SKYLARKY |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
20.1 |
18.3 |
70.8 |
| WATDOYOUSAY JOSE |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
20.5 |
18.4 |
70.8 |
| FROGHOLLOWSUMMER |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
43 |
5 |
2.7 |
0.9 |
45.8 |
| FORGET TOMORROW |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
55 |
6 |
3.8 |
18.2 |
71.6 |
| DEFLECTION POINT |
11 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
52 |
8 |
6.7 |
3.3 |
53.5 |
| FIFI LA FUME |
12 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
65 |
2 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
56.8 |
| RARE SOCIETY |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
47 |
10 |
6.2 |
2.5 |
49.3 |
| 6 |
| FORT NELSON |
1 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
89 |
1 |
13.1 |
14.4 |
78.2 |
| V CRUIZER |
2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
80 |
1 |
12.8 |
12.2 |
77.7 |
| VOILA MAGIC |
5 |
50.0 |
16.7 |
66.7 |
79 |
4 |
20.9 |
20.5 |
85.2 |
| KALAHARI DREAMS |
3 |
44.4 |
11.1 |
55.6 |
81 |
5 |
17.2 |
11.8 |
81.7 |
| GARDINER |
6 |
12.5 |
37.5 |
50.0 |
98 |
1 |
18.3 |
18.9 |
84.7 |
| SINGLEMINDED |
7 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
87 |
2 |
11.1 |
14.0 |
80.1 |
| FILOSO |
4 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
62 |
7 |
6.6 |
8.2 |
74.0 |
| 7 |
| ASHES AND DIAMONDS |
14 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
71 |
4 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
72.6 |
| PAY THE BILLS (FR) |
11 |
28.6 |
0.0 |
28.6 |
82 |
4 |
5.1 |
1.2 |
69.8 |
| HERE'SYOURTROUBLE |
16 |
28.6 |
0.0 |
28.6 |
47 |
4 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
62.7 |
| BOSSY DISH |
12 |
25.0 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
83 |
3 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
71.0 |
| CLASSIC CARA |
1 |
20.0 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
80 |
5 |
3.0 |
1.6 |
71.6 |
| SILVER PEARLS |
13 |
20.0 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
54 |
5 |
1.0 |
7.3 |
78.3 |
| AMERICAN POPSTAR |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.9 |
14.0 |
78.5 |
| GALATI PRINCESS |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.4 |
12.2 |
78.5 |
| NEW ISSUE |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
66 |
2 |
3.3 |
10.1 |
77.8 |
| BREATHLESS WONDER (IRE) |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.8 |
13.3 |
78.5 |
| GALATINA |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
69 |
2 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
61.9 |
| MINT TEA |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
11 |
13.9 |
12.9 |
78.5 |
| ARTELLA |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.1 |
13.4 |
78.5 |
| UNLIMITED SPENDING (JPN) |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
78 |
8 |
3.2 |
1.7 |
70.6 |
| BEDFORD THE BRAVE |
10 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
70 |
6 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
70.2 |
| BABYSITTER |
15 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
44 |
7 |
3.8 |
1.3 |
55.2 |
| 8 |
| RHETORICAL |
6 |
25.0 |
75.0 |
100.0 |
96 |
1 |
11.8 |
16.0 |
96.0 |
| BANK FRENZY |
8 |
20.0 |
60.0 |
80.0 |
97 |
5 |
15.3 |
21.3 |
100.4 |
| DR. KRAFT |
10 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
42.9 |
100 |
1 |
7.3 |
7.0 |
92.4 |
| DRAKE'S PASSAGE |
9 |
30.0 |
10.0 |
40.0 |
96 |
3 |
8.7 |
4.5 |
89.5 |
| BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD |
3 |
12.5 |
25.0 |
37.5 |
92 |
3 |
12.1 |
8.4 |
92.2 |
| GEM MINT TEN |
1 |
22.2 |
11.1 |
33.3 |
90 |
7 |
5.1 |
4.0 |
89.0 |
| CONMAN |
5 |
0.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
97 |
1 |
5.1 |
3.7 |
90.7 |
| CUT THE CORD |
12 |
0.0 |
30.0 |
30.0 |
84 |
1 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
83.3 |
| ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA |
4 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
91 |
4 |
11.4 |
16.3 |
97.7 |
| SHERIFF BIANCO |
7 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
70 |
5 |
4.7 |
3.1 |
81.0 |
| CLEAR CONSCIENCE |
2 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
82 |
6 |
6.6 |
4.5 |
90.5 |
| LOCKE AND KEY |
11 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
90 |
5 |
7.8 |
8.7 |
93.5 |
| LEFTEMBEHIND |
13 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
84 |
2 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
81.1 |
| 9 |
| SENZA PAROLE |
8 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
98 |
1 |
21.9 |
27.2 |
89.7 |
| WILD MAMA |
2 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
4 |
9 |
8.9 |
17.1 |
76.0 |
| DESPO'S DREAM |
5 |
10.0 |
40.0 |
50.0 |
91 |
1 |
8.0 |
6.7 |
81.2 |
| GRAMMY GIRL |
10 |
30.0 |
20.0 |
50.0 |
86 |
5 |
11.3 |
6.1 |
78.8 |
| SARIR |
7 |
42.9 |
0.0 |
42.9 |
93 |
3 |
9.6 |
8.9 |
83.0 |
| ROSWELL |
9 |
30.0 |
10.0 |
40.0 |
82 |
4 |
5.8 |
4.7 |
79.8 |
| PAULA'S A STAR |
1 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
33.3 |
96 |
2 |
14.9 |
12.6 |
83.9 |
| CLAIRE'S RUN |
3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
76 |
6 |
5.6 |
4.2 |
73.5 |
| JUSTTHEFACTSJACK |
4 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
76 |
5 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
81.2 |
| LETSTALKABOUTME |
6 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
77 |
7 |
6.3 |
5.4 |
74.7 |
| 10 |
| RITHM NIC |
10 |
45.5 |
9.1 |
54.5 |
71 |
7 |
26.3 |
27.5 |
87.6 |
| TAKESCHARGESMILING |
3 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
45.5 |
87 |
2 |
13.5 |
14.4 |
83.4 |
| MACAW |
7 |
0.0 |
37.5 |
37.5 |
82 |
1 |
6.4 |
10.0 |
77.9 |
| MEET ME AT MUNDIS |
8 |
18.2 |
9.1 |
27.3 |
73 |
7 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
78.6 |
| GATSBY |
1 |
22.2 |
0.0 |
22.2 |
80 |
5 |
13.8 |
13.4 |
82.2 |
| TETSU |
6 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
84 |
3 |
8.4 |
10.0 |
80.0 |
| FOR SOME REASON |
9 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
84 |
4 |
7.9 |
3.7 |
73.9 |
| MUAZARAH |
4 |
0.0 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
30 |
9 |
4.1 |
1.5 |
53.4 |
| BEACHWALKER |
5 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
72 |
2 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
73.7 |
| JOKING WAY |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
72 |
6 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
77.8 |
Leaderboard — Top Picks by Race
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| HELLO BEAUTY |
5 |
85.7 |
0.0 |
85.7 |
75 |
5 |
11.3 |
6.2 |
78.5 |
| OFF SCRIPT |
3 |
60.0 |
0.0 |
60.0 |
81 |
2 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
79.3 |
| SARATOGA SNOW |
8 |
16.7 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
70 |
2 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
70.1 |
| 2 |
| SPEED OF SOUND |
7 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
71 |
2 |
7.7 |
10.0 |
72.3 |
| LIKELY PERSPECTIVE (IRE) |
12 |
33.3 |
16.7 |
50.0 |
85 |
7 |
13.4 |
14.0 |
77.3 |
| AMAZING ATHENA (IRE) |
11 |
33.3 |
11.1 |
44.4 |
73 |
8 |
9.0 |
10.3 |
78.2 |
| 3 |
| CRESCENDO'S REIN |
7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
78 |
1 |
12.2 |
13.6 |
75.2 |
| UNCLE GEORGE |
1 |
45.5 |
45.5 |
90.9 |
95 |
1 |
24.8 |
22.1 |
86.5 |
| MAN IN FINANCE |
6 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
83 |
4 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
82.4 |
| 4 |
| SACAYA (FR) |
2 |
58.3 |
16.7 |
75.0 |
39 |
7 |
16.3 |
2.6 |
76.3 |
| NATIONAL ARCHIVE |
4 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
79 |
1 |
3.9 |
6.0 |
79.5 |
| SPEED SHOPPER |
10 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
40.0 |
88 |
1 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
87.4 |
| 5 |
| FIVE DOZEN ROSES |
1 |
66.7 |
0.0 |
66.7 |
65 |
2 |
4.0 |
1.9 |
54.3 |
| GATTATIZ |
4 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
54 |
7 |
2.6 |
1.2 |
53.9 |
| MISS UPROAR |
10 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
55 |
3 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
57.8 |
| 6 |
| FORT NELSON |
1 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
89 |
1 |
13.1 |
14.4 |
78.2 |
| V CRUIZER |
2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
80 |
1 |
12.8 |
12.2 |
77.7 |
| VOILA MAGIC |
5 |
50.0 |
16.7 |
66.7 |
79 |
4 |
20.9 |
20.5 |
85.2 |
| 7 |
| ASHES AND DIAMONDS |
14 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
71 |
4 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
72.6 |
| PAY THE BILLS (FR) |
11 |
28.6 |
0.0 |
28.6 |
82 |
4 |
5.1 |
1.2 |
69.8 |
| HERE'SYOURTROUBLE |
16 |
28.6 |
0.0 |
28.6 |
47 |
4 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
62.7 |
| 8 |
| RHETORICAL |
6 |
25.0 |
75.0 |
100.0 |
96 |
1 |
11.8 |
16.0 |
96.0 |
| BANK FRENZY |
8 |
20.0 |
60.0 |
80.0 |
97 |
5 |
15.3 |
21.3 |
100.4 |
| DR. KRAFT |
10 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
42.9 |
100 |
1 |
7.3 |
7.0 |
92.4 |
| 9 |
| SENZA PAROLE |
8 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
98 |
1 |
21.9 |
27.2 |
89.7 |
| WILD MAMA |
2 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
4 |
9 |
8.9 |
17.1 |
76.0 |
| DESPO'S DREAM |
5 |
10.0 |
40.0 |
50.0 |
91 |
1 |
8.0 |
6.7 |
81.2 |
| 10 |
| RITHM NIC |
10 |
45.5 |
9.1 |
54.5 |
71 |
7 |
26.3 |
27.5 |
87.6 |
| TAKESCHARGESMILING |
3 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
45.5 |
87 |
2 |
13.5 |
14.4 |
83.4 |
| MACAW |
7 |
0.0 |
37.5 |
37.5 |
82 |
1 |
6.4 |
10.0 |
77.9 |
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| A. P. SLINGSHOT |
11 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
17.6 |
19.7 |
78.5 |
| KATIE KING |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
64 |
4 |
7.9 |
17.9 |
78.7 |
| BODEGAS |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
60 |
7 |
3.8 |
15.5 |
77.3 |
| 2 |
| LIKELY PERSPECTIVE (IRE) |
12 |
33.3 |
16.7 |
50.0 |
85 |
7 |
13.4 |
14.0 |
77.3 |
| AMAZING ATHENA (IRE) |
11 |
33.3 |
11.1 |
44.4 |
73 |
8 |
9.0 |
10.3 |
78.2 |
| SPEED OF SOUND |
7 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
71 |
2 |
7.7 |
10.0 |
72.3 |
| 3 |
| UNCLE GEORGE |
1 |
45.5 |
45.5 |
90.9 |
95 |
1 |
24.8 |
22.1 |
86.5 |
| MAN IN FINANCE |
6 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
83 |
4 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
82.4 |
| LEO'S REWARD |
3 |
36.4 |
9.1 |
45.5 |
92 |
2 |
15.3 |
18.1 |
84.4 |
| 4 |
| FLEETINGLY |
5 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
86 |
2 |
12.6 |
22.2 |
97.4 |
| BETULA (GB) |
6 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
70 |
7 |
6.7 |
12.0 |
84.9 |
| ATARAH |
3 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
68 |
7 |
5.3 |
11.4 |
79.8 |
| 5 |
| BLUESETTE |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
21.1 |
18.6 |
70.8 |
| WATDOYOUSAY JOSE |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
20.5 |
18.4 |
70.8 |
| SKYLARKY |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
20.1 |
18.3 |
70.8 |
| 6 |
| VOILA MAGIC |
5 |
50.0 |
16.7 |
66.7 |
79 |
4 |
20.9 |
20.5 |
85.2 |
| GARDINER |
6 |
12.5 |
37.5 |
50.0 |
98 |
1 |
18.3 |
18.9 |
84.7 |
| FORT NELSON |
1 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
89 |
1 |
13.1 |
14.4 |
78.2 |
| 7 |
| AMERICAN POPSTAR |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.9 |
14.0 |
78.5 |
| ARTELLA |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.1 |
13.4 |
78.5 |
| BREATHLESS WONDER (IRE) |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.8 |
13.3 |
78.5 |
| 8 |
| BANK FRENZY |
8 |
20.0 |
60.0 |
80.0 |
97 |
5 |
15.3 |
21.3 |
100.4 |
| ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA |
4 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
91 |
4 |
11.4 |
16.3 |
97.7 |
| RHETORICAL |
6 |
25.0 |
75.0 |
100.0 |
96 |
1 |
11.8 |
16.0 |
96.0 |
| 9 |
| SENZA PAROLE |
8 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
98 |
1 |
21.9 |
27.2 |
89.7 |
| WILD MAMA |
2 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
4 |
9 |
8.9 |
17.1 |
76.0 |
| PAULA'S A STAR |
1 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
33.3 |
96 |
2 |
14.9 |
12.6 |
83.9 |
| 10 |
| RITHM NIC |
10 |
45.5 |
9.1 |
54.5 |
71 |
7 |
26.3 |
27.5 |
87.6 |
| TAKESCHARGESMILING |
3 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
45.5 |
87 |
2 |
13.5 |
14.4 |
83.4 |
| GATSBY |
1 |
22.2 |
0.0 |
22.2 |
80 |
5 |
13.8 |
13.4 |
82.2 |
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| A. P. SLINGSHOT |
11 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
17.6 |
19.7 |
78.5 |
| STARSHIP PEGASUS |
10 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
75 |
5 |
12.5 |
8.5 |
75.5 |
| HELLO BEAUTY |
5 |
85.7 |
0.0 |
85.7 |
75 |
5 |
11.3 |
6.2 |
78.5 |
| 2 |
| LIKELY PERSPECTIVE (IRE) |
12 |
33.3 |
16.7 |
50.0 |
85 |
7 |
13.4 |
14.0 |
77.3 |
| LESLIE'S STAR |
2 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
40.0 |
84 |
4 |
10.4 |
6.4 |
57.5 |
| PARADE RING (IRE) |
8 |
0.0 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
75 |
1 |
9.1 |
9.3 |
72.4 |
| 3 |
| UNCLE GEORGE |
1 |
45.5 |
45.5 |
90.9 |
95 |
1 |
24.8 |
22.1 |
86.5 |
| MAN IN FINANCE |
6 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
83 |
4 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
82.4 |
| LEO'S REWARD |
3 |
36.4 |
9.1 |
45.5 |
92 |
2 |
15.3 |
18.1 |
84.4 |
| 4 |
| SACAYA (FR) |
2 |
58.3 |
16.7 |
75.0 |
39 |
7 |
16.3 |
2.6 |
76.3 |
| FLEETINGLY |
5 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
28.6 |
86 |
2 |
12.6 |
22.2 |
97.4 |
| LINA (FR) |
9 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
25.0 |
75 |
8 |
12.3 |
4.9 |
84.9 |
| 5 |
| BLUESETTE |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
21.1 |
18.6 |
70.8 |
| WATDOYOUSAY JOSE |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
20.5 |
18.4 |
70.8 |
| SKYLARKY |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
20.1 |
18.3 |
70.8 |
| 6 |
| VOILA MAGIC |
5 |
50.0 |
16.7 |
66.7 |
79 |
4 |
20.9 |
20.5 |
85.2 |
| GARDINER |
6 |
12.5 |
37.5 |
50.0 |
98 |
1 |
18.3 |
18.9 |
84.7 |
| KALAHARI DREAMS |
3 |
44.4 |
11.1 |
55.6 |
81 |
5 |
17.2 |
11.8 |
81.7 |
| 7 |
| MINT TEA |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
11 |
13.9 |
12.9 |
78.5 |
| ARTELLA |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.1 |
13.4 |
78.5 |
| AMERICAN POPSTAR |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
12.9 |
14.0 |
78.5 |
| 8 |
| BANK FRENZY |
8 |
20.0 |
60.0 |
80.0 |
97 |
5 |
15.3 |
21.3 |
100.4 |
| BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD |
3 |
12.5 |
25.0 |
37.5 |
92 |
3 |
12.1 |
8.4 |
92.2 |
| RHETORICAL |
6 |
25.0 |
75.0 |
100.0 |
96 |
1 |
11.8 |
16.0 |
96.0 |
| 9 |
| SENZA PAROLE |
8 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
98 |
1 |
21.9 |
27.2 |
89.7 |
| PAULA'S A STAR |
1 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
33.3 |
96 |
2 |
14.9 |
12.6 |
83.9 |
| GRAMMY GIRL |
10 |
30.0 |
20.0 |
50.0 |
86 |
5 |
11.3 |
6.1 |
78.8 |
| 10 |
| RITHM NIC |
10 |
45.5 |
9.1 |
54.5 |
71 |
7 |
26.3 |
27.5 |
87.6 |
| GATSBY |
1 |
22.2 |
0.0 |
22.2 |
80 |
5 |
13.8 |
13.4 |
82.2 |
| TAKESCHARGESMILING |
3 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
45.5 |
87 |
2 |
13.5 |
14.4 |
83.4 |
Per-Race Deep Dive (Interactive, Right-Aligned, Linked; NA-safe)
Race 1 — Field Overview
Race 2 — Field Overview
Race 3 — Field Overview
Race 4 — Field Overview
Race 5 — Field Overview
Race 6 — Field Overview
Race 7 — Field Overview
Race 8 — Field Overview
Race 9 — Field Overview
Race 10 — Field Overview
Appendix — Raw Parsed Rows (sample)
| race_index |
horse_name |
post |
speed_last |
speed_best |
speed_trend |
finish_last |
dist_last_f |
| 1 |
BODEGAS |
1 |
60 |
60 |
11.00000000 |
7 |
5.5 |
| 1 |
SASSETTI |
1 |
78 |
78 |
8.00000000 |
3 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
JUST ONE MORE |
2 |
69 |
80 |
0.60000000 |
12 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
NIGHT JASMINE |
2 |
72 |
73 |
7.40000000 |
7 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
OFF SCRIPT |
3 |
81 |
81 |
1.70000000 |
2 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
KATIE KING |
4 |
64 |
64 |
0.00000000 |
4 |
6.0 |
| 1 |
HELLO BEAUTY |
5 |
75 |
90 |
2.50000000 |
5 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
WILL OF A WOMANNE |
6 |
77 |
77 |
2.50000000 |
4 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
AMAZING GRACER |
7 |
71 |
71 |
0.00000000 |
5 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
SARATOGA SNOW |
8 |
70 |
72 |
1.14285714 |
2 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
WILLFUL MAMA |
9 |
61 |
74 |
-0.63333333 |
3 |
6.0 |
| 1 |
STARSHIP PEGASUS |
10 |
75 |
75 |
0.00000000 |
5 |
8.5 |
| 1 |
A. P. SLINGSHOT |
11 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
OUR PREFERRED PAL |
12 |
50 |
75 |
2.53333333 |
2 |
6.5 |
| 2 |
HUE |
1 |
76 |
79 |
6.00000000 |
3 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
LESLIE'S STAR |
2 |
84 |
88 |
9.70000000 |
4 |
8.0 |
| 2 |
PARTY AT THE POST |
3 |
45 |
45 |
5.40000000 |
8 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
NO FACTOR |
4 |
47 |
62 |
-0.07142857 |
10 |
6.0 |
| 2 |
WEST LOOP |
5 |
73 |
87 |
1.07142857 |
2 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
SHESINAMOOD |
6 |
72 |
77 |
0.20000000 |
6 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
SPEED OF SOUND |
7 |
71 |
73 |
-2.00000000 |
2 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
PARADE RING (IRE) |
8 |
75 |
83 |
-2.61904762 |
1 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
ANOTHER CLEESHAY |
9 |
69 |
79 |
-0.32142857 |
3 |
6.0 |
| 2 |
MISS BOURBON |
10 |
68 |
83 |
4.54195804 |
7 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
AMAZING ATHENA (IRE) |
11 |
73 |
91 |
-0.31666667 |
8 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
LIKELY PERSPECTIVE (IRE) |
12 |
85 |
91 |
0.05714286 |
7 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
ELEGANT |
13 |
77 |
92 |
-0.86363636 |
3 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
LOLLIPOPS |
14 |
71 |
71 |
3.70000000 |
2 |
6.0 |
| 2 |
I'M KIDDING |
15 |
75 |
84 |
-0.25000000 |
2 |
6.0 |
| 3 |
UNCLE GEORGE |
1 |
95 |
95 |
0.82727273 |
1 |
6.0 |
| 3 |
CHIEF LIAM |
2 |
61 |
76 |
2.00000000 |
8 |
8.5 |
| 3 |
LEO'S REWARD |
3 |
92 |
94 |
2.40909091 |
2 |
6.0 |
| 3 |
ROOFER |
4 |
82 |
94 |
2.53333333 |
4 |
5.5 |
| 3 |
ON THE HILL |
5 |
87 |
98 |
0.20000000 |
3 |
6.0 |
| 3 |
MAN IN FINANCE |
6 |
83 |
92 |
-9.00000000 |
4 |
7.0 |
| 3 |
CRESCENDO'S REIN |
7 |
78 |
78 |
0.00000000 |
1 |
7.0 |
| 4 |
ALIMARA (FR) |
1 |
80 |
94 |
-1.71428571 |
7 |
9.5 |
| 4 |
SACAYA (FR) |
2 |
39 |
109 |
-2.68531469 |
7 |
12.0 |
| 4 |
ATARAH |
3 |
68 |
86 |
-1.30000000 |
7 |
8.0 |
| 4 |
NATIONAL ARCHIVE |
4 |
79 |
79 |
2.10000000 |
1 |
9.5 |
| 4 |
FLEETINGLY |
5 |
86 |
93 |
0.25000000 |
2 |
9.0 |
| 4 |
BETULA (GB) |
6 |
70 |
96 |
-1.81666667 |
7 |
8.0 |
| 4 |
SNOWY EVENING |
7 |
82 |
87 |
-0.27380952 |
5 |
8.0 |
| 4 |
BOBBY JEAN |
8 |
82 |
87 |
0.79090909 |
5 |
9.5 |
| 4 |
LINA (FR) |
9 |
75 |
96 |
-1.95238095 |
8 |
9.5 |
| 4 |
SPEED SHOPPER |
10 |
88 |
88 |
3.00000000 |
1 |
11.0 |
| 4 |
PURLOIN |
11 |
87 |
87 |
2.41666667 |
1 |
8.5 |
| 4 |
LOW KEY |
12 |
89 |
89 |
3.10000000 |
1 |
8.0 |
| 4 |
WALK WITH ME |
13 |
80 |
85 |
2.01818182 |
1 |
8.0 |
| 5 |
FIVE DOZEN ROSES |
1 |
65 |
65 |
10.50000000 |
2 |
6.0 |
Notes on the Bayesian approach
- This uses a conjugate Normal–Inverse-Gamma model for each horse’s latent speed and draws posterior predictive samples; win probability is the chance a simulated next speed is the maximum in its field.
- Heavy tails come from the Student-t predictive, improving robustness with sparse/noisy histories.
- Recency weighting (half-life in race counts) down-weights old races; set
BAYES_HALF_LIFE_RACES <- NA to turn off.
- If you later want true MCMC/hierarchical effects, we can wire a
brms/rstanarm alternative and keep the same max-of-field simulation to produce Win% (Bayes, naive).