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Bayesian Win Probabilities from Past Speeds
Summary — Today’s Card
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| KING OF FOG |
3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
59 |
4 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
60.2 |
| CRISTOBAL |
7 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
66 |
3 |
8.1 |
5.7 |
66.5 |
| MAKE A PREDICTION |
8 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
54 |
6 |
5.9 |
2.9 |
55.7 |
| ESSENTIALLY FAST |
2 |
50.0 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
32 |
8 |
3.5 |
0.7 |
44.3 |
| TAKAHAMA |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
18.2 |
20.3 |
70.8 |
| THREE THIRTEEN |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
46 |
7 |
5.0 |
1.5 |
48.5 |
| BERMAN |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
17.9 |
22.1 |
70.8 |
| FOLLOWILL |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
18.1 |
20.9 |
70.8 |
| FOURTH AND ONE |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
16.9 |
22.4 |
70.8 |
| 2 |
| PRINCESS MADISON |
2 |
37.5 |
25.0 |
62.5 |
87 |
3 |
21.7 |
24.0 |
86.3 |
| TRICKY TEMPER |
5 |
27.3 |
27.3 |
54.5 |
89 |
2 |
13.0 |
10.8 |
80.8 |
| EVERYONELOVESLINDA |
3 |
42.9 |
0.0 |
42.9 |
82 |
5 |
22.2 |
24.6 |
87.1 |
| MAGGY'S PALACE |
4 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
85 |
1 |
12.7 |
14.1 |
82.6 |
| BOURBON BREEZE |
6 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
86 |
5 |
18.8 |
19.9 |
86.0 |
| CARESS |
1 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
25.0 |
87 |
2 |
11.6 |
6.5 |
76.2 |
| 3 |
| IRON ORCHARD |
3 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
78 |
1 |
22.0 |
22.5 |
78.1 |
| GRAZIE |
6 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
77 |
1 |
20.6 |
20.8 |
76.4 |
| DOPAMINE |
2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
72 |
1 |
16.0 |
18.2 |
75.7 |
| ORIOLE WAY |
4 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
71 |
1 |
16.6 |
16.2 |
74.2 |
| SHAKTI |
5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
73 |
1 |
17.6 |
17.1 |
74.4 |
| ANGEL GIFT |
1 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
51 |
5 |
7.3 |
5.3 |
61.7 |
| 4 |
| BOLD ENDEAVOR |
4 |
44.4 |
22.2 |
66.7 |
94 |
2 |
30.6 |
33.9 |
88.8 |
| QUICK HAMMER |
7 |
18.2 |
41.7 |
59.8 |
73 |
4 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
84.3 |
| PEEK |
1 |
9.1 |
27.3 |
36.4 |
75 |
3 |
10.6 |
9.0 |
80.1 |
| BEST BET |
2 |
8.3 |
16.7 |
25.0 |
70 |
4 |
7.5 |
3.3 |
66.8 |
| ROYAL TRYST |
6 |
16.7 |
8.3 |
25.0 |
83 |
5 |
10.0 |
8.7 |
79.6 |
| ERIC FROM MIAMI |
8 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
51 |
8 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
73.0 |
| BREW PUB |
5 |
20.0 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
85 |
3 |
13.8 |
14.8 |
82.5 |
| CUMBERLAND BLUES |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
69 |
7 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
72.3 |
| 5 |
| ZAKAT |
9 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
69 |
1 |
11.8 |
7.5 |
59.2 |
| TARPAULIN |
2 |
50.0 |
25.0 |
75.0 |
66 |
3 |
16.1 |
20.1 |
72.0 |
| WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS |
5 |
42.9 |
14.3 |
57.1 |
59 |
8 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
67.2 |
| SITTIN CHILLY |
6 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
67 |
3 |
17.2 |
17.6 |
69.9 |
| MACKVILLE |
1 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
59 |
5 |
5.9 |
3.5 |
61.5 |
| SHARP PLAY BOY |
7 |
18.2 |
9.1 |
27.3 |
58 |
4 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
60.3 |
| DIALBOLICO |
4 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
20.0 |
60 |
7 |
7.4 |
5.4 |
64.0 |
| TIOTE |
2 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
64 |
4 |
10.9 |
13.2 |
67.8 |
| BERNIE GOES BOOM |
3 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
44 |
5 |
2.2 |
7.2 |
57.7 |
| WESTERN WOLF |
1 |
0.0 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
23 |
5 |
6.1 |
4.0 |
51.0 |
| MAJESTIC ARC |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
62 |
5 |
4.6 |
2.6 |
59.1 |
| 6 |
| ACADEMIA |
9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
78 |
3 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
82.5 |
| COUNTERINTUITIVE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.5 |
11.9 |
82.7 |
| RAGING BLOOM |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
63 |
6 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
73.8 |
| ACTIS |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
58 |
4 |
4.8 |
10.7 |
83.5 |
| NOISETOMAKENOISE |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
14.7 |
11.5 |
82.7 |
| CELEBRITY WARRIOR (IRE) |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
14.1 |
11.3 |
82.7 |
| VENERINI |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
55 |
6 |
4.4 |
11.9 |
83.4 |
| AMICABLE FARCE |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
14.0 |
11.9 |
82.7 |
| FILLE D'ORO (IRE) |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
14.1 |
12.0 |
82.7 |
| CURLY Q GIRL |
8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
65 |
4 |
5.8 |
4.7 |
74.8 |
| 7 |
| TISQUANTUM |
7 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
100.0 |
110 |
1 |
28.3 |
26.7 |
90.9 |
| MARGIN OF AIR |
1 |
33.3 |
22.2 |
55.6 |
86 |
1 |
12.3 |
13.8 |
88.3 |
| STYNER |
6 |
11.1 |
33.3 |
44.4 |
95 |
2 |
14.1 |
23.4 |
92.0 |
| SYSTEMIC CHANGE |
4 |
18.2 |
25.0 |
43.2 |
80 |
6 |
15.5 |
12.2 |
88.4 |
| O P FIRECRACKER |
3 |
0.0 |
18.2 |
18.2 |
39 |
5 |
4.3 |
1.7 |
70.3 |
| LAUGHING BOY |
8 |
14.3 |
0.0 |
14.3 |
84 |
5 |
10.6 |
8.8 |
81.7 |
| MANTA REY |
5 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
89 |
2 |
10.5 |
8.3 |
84.7 |
| SUERTE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
83 |
3 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
80.5 |
| 8 |
| COOKE CREEK |
4 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
55.6 |
77 |
13 |
16.4 |
19.1 |
97.2 |
| CAGLIOSTRO |
3 |
27.3 |
18.2 |
45.5 |
91 |
5 |
18.3 |
27.2 |
100.3 |
| FILM STAR |
5 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
40.0 |
104 |
1 |
15.7 |
13.3 |
94.9 |
| SPEED BIAS |
2 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
33.3 |
96 |
6 |
9.5 |
5.0 |
91.1 |
| FULL SCREEN |
8 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
33.3 |
86 |
6 |
11.9 |
14.7 |
95.9 |
| MAMA'S GOLD |
6 |
9.1 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
74 |
8 |
11.7 |
6.5 |
88.8 |
| MONEY SUPPLY |
7 |
9.1 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
94 |
4 |
11.4 |
9.6 |
94.8 |
| WYNSTOCK |
1 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
84 |
9 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
89.0 |
| 9 |
| STERLING SILVER |
9 |
60.0 |
20.0 |
80.0 |
83 |
3 |
16.1 |
21.4 |
94.8 |
| BERNIETAKESCHARGE |
3 |
14.3 |
57.1 |
71.4 |
101 |
1 |
11.4 |
9.7 |
82.0 |
| MOONAGE DAYDREAM |
1 |
0.0 |
54.5 |
54.5 |
99 |
1 |
10.7 |
12.5 |
91.5 |
| SPINNING COLORS |
4 |
9.1 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
111 |
2 |
18.6 |
13.3 |
88.1 |
| FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER |
5 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
45.5 |
72 |
6 |
3.8 |
3.2 |
84.0 |
| AWESOME CZECH |
2 |
8.3 |
25.0 |
33.3 |
97 |
1 |
7.4 |
5.9 |
88.2 |
| MALU |
14 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
85 |
1 |
4.2 |
5.1 |
84.1 |
| BEING BETTY |
7 |
0.0 |
28.6 |
28.6 |
88 |
5 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
80.0 |
| SILVER SKILLET |
10 |
9.1 |
18.2 |
27.3 |
89 |
2 |
6.9 |
4.7 |
85.4 |
| BROCKNARDINI |
6 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
87 |
1 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
81.7 |
| MIDNIGHT CONCERTO |
12 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
82 |
4 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
81.8 |
| FAST AND FRISKY |
15 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
86 |
1 |
3.3 |
6.6 |
84.6 |
| SHE'S OUR TIZ |
8 |
0.0 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
85 |
4 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
79.7 |
| BERNT AGAIN |
11 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
83 |
3 |
2.3 |
1.2 |
75.5 |
| AMANDA'S FOLLY |
13 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
74 |
4 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
79.1 |
| KRYSTALHEIR |
16 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
61 |
3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
64.3 |
| 10 |
| ALEXIS ZORBA (GB) |
4 |
60.0 |
0.0 |
60.0 |
85 |
3 |
19.1 |
21.9 |
84.2 |
| REYNOLDS CHANNEL |
5 |
45.5 |
9.1 |
54.5 |
89 |
2 |
24.6 |
29.5 |
84.2 |
| IDENTITY CRISIS |
6 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66 |
7 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
67.4 |
| HOLDING THE LINE (IRE) |
11 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
86 |
5 |
13.8 |
9.0 |
73.0 |
| NANO MAN |
8 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
18.2 |
74 |
2 |
8.5 |
4.5 |
74.3 |
| FLY'N FRISBEE |
13 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
72 |
2 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
62.5 |
| FILM ACADEMY |
9 |
0.0 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
79 |
4 |
5.6 |
6.9 |
74.3 |
| MAZZEI |
1 |
0.0 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
61 |
12 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
58.0 |
| RICHARD AVE |
3 |
0.0 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
79 |
2 |
5.7 |
8.7 |
72.6 |
| COUSIN ED |
2 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
74 |
3 |
3.5 |
5.1 |
74.4 |
| PRICE IS TRUTH |
14 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
67 |
3 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
66.2 |
| HARD PAR |
10 |
0.0 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
71 |
6 |
3.3 |
2.6 |
70.7 |
| BRODERICK |
7 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
62 |
4 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
59.8 |
| EPITAPH |
12 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
59 |
5 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
67.6 |
Leaderboard — Top Picks by Race
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| KING OF FOG |
3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
59 |
4 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
60.2 |
| CRISTOBAL |
7 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
66 |
3 |
8.1 |
5.7 |
66.5 |
| MAKE A PREDICTION |
8 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
54 |
6 |
5.9 |
2.9 |
55.7 |
| 2 |
| PRINCESS MADISON |
2 |
37.5 |
25.0 |
62.5 |
87 |
3 |
21.7 |
24.0 |
86.3 |
| TRICKY TEMPER |
5 |
27.3 |
27.3 |
54.5 |
89 |
2 |
13.0 |
10.8 |
80.8 |
| EVERYONELOVESLINDA |
3 |
42.9 |
0.0 |
42.9 |
82 |
5 |
22.2 |
24.6 |
87.1 |
| 3 |
| IRON ORCHARD |
3 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
78 |
1 |
22.0 |
22.5 |
78.1 |
| GRAZIE |
6 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
77 |
1 |
20.6 |
20.8 |
76.4 |
| DOPAMINE |
2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
72 |
1 |
16.0 |
18.2 |
75.7 |
| 4 |
| BOLD ENDEAVOR |
4 |
44.4 |
22.2 |
66.7 |
94 |
2 |
30.6 |
33.9 |
88.8 |
| QUICK HAMMER |
7 |
18.2 |
41.7 |
59.8 |
73 |
4 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
84.3 |
| PEEK |
1 |
9.1 |
27.3 |
36.4 |
75 |
3 |
10.6 |
9.0 |
80.1 |
| 5 |
| ZAKAT |
9 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
69 |
1 |
11.8 |
7.5 |
59.2 |
| TARPAULIN |
2 |
50.0 |
25.0 |
75.0 |
66 |
3 |
16.1 |
20.1 |
72.0 |
| WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS |
5 |
42.9 |
14.3 |
57.1 |
59 |
8 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
67.2 |
| 6 |
| ACADEMIA |
9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
78 |
3 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
82.5 |
| COUNTERINTUITIVE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.5 |
11.9 |
82.7 |
| RAGING BLOOM |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
63 |
6 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
73.8 |
| 7 |
| TISQUANTUM |
7 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
100.0 |
110 |
1 |
28.3 |
26.7 |
90.9 |
| MARGIN OF AIR |
1 |
33.3 |
22.2 |
55.6 |
86 |
1 |
12.3 |
13.8 |
88.3 |
| STYNER |
6 |
11.1 |
33.3 |
44.4 |
95 |
2 |
14.1 |
23.4 |
92.0 |
| 8 |
| COOKE CREEK |
4 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
55.6 |
77 |
13 |
16.4 |
19.1 |
97.2 |
| CAGLIOSTRO |
3 |
27.3 |
18.2 |
45.5 |
91 |
5 |
18.3 |
27.2 |
100.3 |
| FILM STAR |
5 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
40.0 |
104 |
1 |
15.7 |
13.3 |
94.9 |
| 9 |
| STERLING SILVER |
9 |
60.0 |
20.0 |
80.0 |
83 |
3 |
16.1 |
21.4 |
94.8 |
| BERNIETAKESCHARGE |
3 |
14.3 |
57.1 |
71.4 |
101 |
1 |
11.4 |
9.7 |
82.0 |
| MOONAGE DAYDREAM |
1 |
0.0 |
54.5 |
54.5 |
99 |
1 |
10.7 |
12.5 |
91.5 |
| 10 |
| ALEXIS ZORBA (GB) |
4 |
60.0 |
0.0 |
60.0 |
85 |
3 |
19.1 |
21.9 |
84.2 |
| REYNOLDS CHANNEL |
5 |
45.5 |
9.1 |
54.5 |
89 |
2 |
24.6 |
29.5 |
84.2 |
| IDENTITY CRISIS |
6 |
0.0 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
66 |
7 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
67.4 |
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| FOURTH AND ONE |
9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
16.9 |
22.4 |
70.8 |
| BERMAN |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
17.9 |
22.1 |
70.8 |
| FOLLOWILL |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
18.1 |
20.9 |
70.8 |
| 2 |
| EVERYONELOVESLINDA |
3 |
42.9 |
0.0 |
42.9 |
82 |
5 |
22.2 |
24.6 |
87.1 |
| PRINCESS MADISON |
2 |
37.5 |
25.0 |
62.5 |
87 |
3 |
21.7 |
24.0 |
86.3 |
| BOURBON BREEZE |
6 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
86 |
5 |
18.8 |
19.9 |
86.0 |
| 3 |
| IRON ORCHARD |
3 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
78 |
1 |
22.0 |
22.5 |
78.1 |
| GRAZIE |
6 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
77 |
1 |
20.6 |
20.8 |
76.4 |
| DOPAMINE |
2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
72 |
1 |
16.0 |
18.2 |
75.7 |
| 4 |
| BOLD ENDEAVOR |
4 |
44.4 |
22.2 |
66.7 |
94 |
2 |
30.6 |
33.9 |
88.8 |
| QUICK HAMMER |
7 |
18.2 |
41.7 |
59.8 |
73 |
4 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
84.3 |
| BREW PUB |
5 |
20.0 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
85 |
3 |
13.8 |
14.8 |
82.5 |
| 5 |
| TARPAULIN |
2 |
50.0 |
25.0 |
75.0 |
66 |
3 |
16.1 |
20.1 |
72.0 |
| SITTIN CHILLY |
6 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
67 |
3 |
17.2 |
17.6 |
69.9 |
| WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS |
5 |
42.9 |
14.3 |
57.1 |
59 |
8 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
67.2 |
| 6 |
| FILLE D'ORO (IRE) |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
14.1 |
12.0 |
82.7 |
| COUNTERINTUITIVE |
2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
13.5 |
11.9 |
82.7 |
| VENERINI |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
55 |
6 |
4.4 |
11.9 |
83.4 |
| 7 |
| TISQUANTUM |
7 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
100.0 |
110 |
1 |
28.3 |
26.7 |
90.9 |
| STYNER |
6 |
11.1 |
33.3 |
44.4 |
95 |
2 |
14.1 |
23.4 |
92.0 |
| MARGIN OF AIR |
1 |
33.3 |
22.2 |
55.6 |
86 |
1 |
12.3 |
13.8 |
88.3 |
| 8 |
| CAGLIOSTRO |
3 |
27.3 |
18.2 |
45.5 |
91 |
5 |
18.3 |
27.2 |
100.3 |
| COOKE CREEK |
4 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
55.6 |
77 |
13 |
16.4 |
19.1 |
97.2 |
| FULL SCREEN |
8 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
33.3 |
86 |
6 |
11.9 |
14.7 |
95.9 |
| 9 |
| STERLING SILVER |
9 |
60.0 |
20.0 |
80.0 |
83 |
3 |
16.1 |
21.4 |
94.8 |
| SPINNING COLORS |
4 |
9.1 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
111 |
2 |
18.6 |
13.3 |
88.1 |
| MOONAGE DAYDREAM |
1 |
0.0 |
54.5 |
54.5 |
99 |
1 |
10.7 |
12.5 |
91.5 |
| 10 |
| REYNOLDS CHANNEL |
5 |
45.5 |
9.1 |
54.5 |
89 |
2 |
24.6 |
29.5 |
84.2 |
| ALEXIS ZORBA (GB) |
4 |
60.0 |
0.0 |
60.0 |
85 |
3 |
19.1 |
21.9 |
84.2 |
| HOLDING THE LINE (IRE) |
11 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
86 |
5 |
13.8 |
9.0 |
73.0 |
|
Post |
Speed% |
Win% (hist) |
SpdFinish_Idx |
Last Speed |
Last Finish |
Win% (Bayes, naive) |
Win% (Bayes, @ dist) |
Exp Speed @ dist |
| 1 |
| TAKAHAMA |
1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
18.2 |
20.3 |
70.8 |
| FOLLOWILL |
6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
18.1 |
20.9 |
70.8 |
| BERMAN |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
17.9 |
22.1 |
70.8 |
| 2 |
| EVERYONELOVESLINDA |
3 |
42.9 |
0.0 |
42.9 |
82 |
5 |
22.2 |
24.6 |
87.1 |
| PRINCESS MADISON |
2 |
37.5 |
25.0 |
62.5 |
87 |
3 |
21.7 |
24.0 |
86.3 |
| BOURBON BREEZE |
6 |
11.1 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
86 |
5 |
18.8 |
19.9 |
86.0 |
| 3 |
| IRON ORCHARD |
3 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
78 |
1 |
22.0 |
22.5 |
78.1 |
| GRAZIE |
6 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
200.0 |
77 |
1 |
20.6 |
20.8 |
76.4 |
| SHAKTI |
5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
73 |
1 |
17.6 |
17.1 |
74.4 |
| 4 |
| BOLD ENDEAVOR |
4 |
44.4 |
22.2 |
66.7 |
94 |
2 |
30.6 |
33.9 |
88.8 |
| QUICK HAMMER |
7 |
18.2 |
41.7 |
59.8 |
73 |
4 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
84.3 |
| BREW PUB |
5 |
20.0 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
85 |
3 |
13.8 |
14.8 |
82.5 |
| 5 |
| SITTIN CHILLY |
6 |
0.0 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
67 |
3 |
17.2 |
17.6 |
69.9 |
| TARPAULIN |
2 |
50.0 |
25.0 |
75.0 |
66 |
3 |
16.1 |
20.1 |
72.0 |
| WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS |
5 |
42.9 |
14.3 |
57.1 |
59 |
8 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
67.2 |
| 6 |
| NOISETOMAKENOISE |
4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
14.7 |
11.5 |
82.7 |
| CELEBRITY WARRIOR (IRE) |
5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
14.1 |
11.3 |
82.7 |
| FILLE D'ORO (IRE) |
7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NA |
NA |
14.1 |
12.0 |
82.7 |
| 7 |
| TISQUANTUM |
7 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
100.0 |
110 |
1 |
28.3 |
26.7 |
90.9 |
| SYSTEMIC CHANGE |
4 |
18.2 |
25.0 |
43.2 |
80 |
6 |
15.5 |
12.2 |
88.4 |
| STYNER |
6 |
11.1 |
33.3 |
44.4 |
95 |
2 |
14.1 |
23.4 |
92.0 |
| 8 |
| CAGLIOSTRO |
3 |
27.3 |
18.2 |
45.5 |
91 |
5 |
18.3 |
27.2 |
100.3 |
| COOKE CREEK |
4 |
22.2 |
33.3 |
55.6 |
77 |
13 |
16.4 |
19.1 |
97.2 |
| FILM STAR |
5 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
40.0 |
104 |
1 |
15.7 |
13.3 |
94.9 |
| 9 |
| SPINNING COLORS |
4 |
9.1 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
111 |
2 |
18.6 |
13.3 |
88.1 |
| STERLING SILVER |
9 |
60.0 |
20.0 |
80.0 |
83 |
3 |
16.1 |
21.4 |
94.8 |
| BERNIETAKESCHARGE |
3 |
14.3 |
57.1 |
71.4 |
101 |
1 |
11.4 |
9.7 |
82.0 |
| 10 |
| REYNOLDS CHANNEL |
5 |
45.5 |
9.1 |
54.5 |
89 |
2 |
24.6 |
29.5 |
84.2 |
| ALEXIS ZORBA (GB) |
4 |
60.0 |
0.0 |
60.0 |
85 |
3 |
19.1 |
21.9 |
84.2 |
| HOLDING THE LINE (IRE) |
11 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
86 |
5 |
13.8 |
9.0 |
73.0 |
Per-Race Deep Dive (Interactive, Right-Aligned, Linked; NA-safe)
Race 1 — Field Overview
Race 2 — Field Overview
Race 3 — Field Overview
Race 4 — Field Overview
Race 5 — Field Overview
Race 6 — Field Overview
Race 7 — Field Overview
Race 8 — Field Overview
Race 9 — Field Overview
Race 10 — Field Overview
Appendix — Raw Parsed Rows (sample)
| race_index |
horse_name |
post |
speed_last |
speed_best |
speed_trend |
finish_last |
dist_last_f |
| 1 |
TAKAHAMA |
1 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
ESSENTIALLY FAST |
2 |
32 |
56 |
-24.00000000 |
8 |
5.5 |
| 1 |
KING OF FOG |
3 |
59 |
59 |
0.00000000 |
4 |
6.0 |
| 1 |
THREE THIRTEEN |
4 |
46 |
46 |
0.00000000 |
7 |
5.5 |
| 1 |
BERMAN |
5 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
FOLLOWILL |
6 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 1 |
CRISTOBAL |
7 |
66 |
66 |
0.00000000 |
3 |
5.5 |
| 1 |
MAKE A PREDICTION |
8 |
54 |
54 |
0.00000000 |
6 |
5.5 |
| 1 |
FOURTH AND ONE |
9 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 2 |
CARESS |
1 |
87 |
87 |
0.23809524 |
2 |
6.5 |
| 2 |
PRINCESS MADISON |
2 |
87 |
98 |
1.28571429 |
3 |
6.5 |
| 2 |
EVERYONELOVESLINDA |
3 |
82 |
100 |
-1.00000000 |
5 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
MAGGY'S PALACE |
4 |
85 |
91 |
-0.05000000 |
1 |
7.0 |
| 2 |
TRICKY TEMPER |
5 |
89 |
100 |
-0.52727273 |
2 |
7.0 |
| 2 |
BOURBON BREEZE |
6 |
86 |
93 |
1.61666667 |
5 |
6.0 |
| 3 |
ANGEL GIFT |
1 |
51 |
68 |
-17.00000000 |
5 |
6.5 |
| 3 |
DOPAMINE |
2 |
72 |
72 |
0.00000000 |
1 |
4.5 |
| 3 |
IRON ORCHARD |
3 |
78 |
78 |
0.00000000 |
1 |
6.5 |
| 3 |
ORIOLE WAY |
4 |
71 |
71 |
0.00000000 |
1 |
5.0 |
| 3 |
SHAKTI |
5 |
73 |
73 |
0.00000000 |
1 |
5.5 |
| 3 |
GRAZIE |
6 |
77 |
77 |
0.00000000 |
1 |
6.0 |
| 4 |
PEEK |
1 |
75 |
98 |
-0.45454545 |
3 |
8.0 |
| 4 |
BEST BET |
2 |
70 |
94 |
-2.04545455 |
4 |
7.0 |
| 4 |
CUMBERLAND BLUES |
3 |
69 |
81 |
-0.07142857 |
7 |
6.5 |
| 4 |
BOLD ENDEAVOR |
4 |
94 |
105 |
-1.03333333 |
2 |
9.0 |
| 4 |
BREW PUB |
5 |
85 |
96 |
-0.13333333 |
3 |
8.0 |
| 4 |
ROYAL TRYST |
6 |
83 |
92 |
-0.63636364 |
5 |
9.0 |
| 4 |
QUICK HAMMER |
7 |
73 |
108 |
0.92727273 |
4 |
6.0 |
| 4 |
ERIC FROM MIAMI |
8 |
51 |
94 |
-3.57142857 |
8 |
9.0 |
| 5 |
MACKVILLE |
1 |
59 |
75 |
-0.70000000 |
5 |
5.5 |
| 5 |
WESTERN WOLF |
1 |
23 |
75 |
-2.24242424 |
5 |
6.5 |
| 5 |
TARPAULIN |
2 |
66 |
77 |
-1.80000000 |
3 |
7.0 |
| 5 |
TIOTE |
2 |
64 |
79 |
-1.97142857 |
4 |
6.5 |
| 5 |
BERNIE GOES BOOM |
3 |
44 |
66 |
1.76363636 |
5 |
9.0 |
| 5 |
DIALBOLICO |
4 |
60 |
74 |
0.61818182 |
7 |
7.0 |
| 5 |
WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS |
5 |
59 |
91 |
-1.32142857 |
8 |
5.5 |
| 5 |
SITTIN CHILLY |
6 |
67 |
73 |
-6.00000000 |
3 |
6.0 |
| 5 |
SHARP PLAY BOY |
7 |
58 |
76 |
-1.38181818 |
4 |
6.0 |
| 5 |
MAJESTIC ARC |
8 |
62 |
68 |
0.36666667 |
5 |
7.0 |
| 5 |
ZAKAT |
9 |
69 |
69 |
25.00000000 |
1 |
6.0 |
| 6 |
RAGING BLOOM |
1 |
63 |
63 |
0.00000000 |
6 |
8.0 |
| 6 |
VENERINI |
1 |
55 |
55 |
0.00000000 |
6 |
6.0 |
| 6 |
COUNTERINTUITIVE |
2 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 6 |
ACTIS |
3 |
58 |
58 |
0.00000000 |
4 |
5.5 |
| 6 |
NOISETOMAKENOISE |
4 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 6 |
CELEBRITY WARRIOR (IRE) |
5 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 6 |
AMICABLE FARCE |
6 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 6 |
FILLE D'ORO (IRE) |
7 |
NA |
NA |
0.00000000 |
NA |
NA |
| 6 |
CURLY Q GIRL |
8 |
65 |
65 |
0.00000000 |
4 |
8.0 |
| 6 |
ACADEMIA |
9 |
78 |
78 |
0.00000000 |
3 |
6.0 |
Notes on the Bayesian approach
- This uses a conjugate Normal–Inverse-Gamma model for each horse’s latent speed and draws posterior predictive samples; win probability is the chance a simulated next speed is the maximum in its field.
- Heavy tails come from the Student-t predictive, improving robustness with sparse/noisy histories.
- Recency weighting (half-life in race counts) down-weights old races; set
BAYES_HALF_LIFE_RACES <- NA to turn off.
- If you later want true MCMC/hierarchical effects, we can wire a
brms/rstanarm alternative and keep the same max-of-field simulation to produce Win% (Bayes, naive).